In one of the biggest political upsets in recent Lagos history, 14 sitting members of the Lagos State House of Assembly failed to secure the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket for the 2027 elections. Out of 40 seats, only 24 incumbents survived the primaries, while two others had stepped aside earlier. This massive turnover signals a major power shift in Lagos politics.
Alleged Main Reasons Behind the Losses
Retaliation for the Failed Impeachment Plot Against Speaker Mudashiru Obasa
Early in 2025, some lawmakers attempted to impeach then-Speaker Mudashiru Obasa. The crisis was only resolved after the intervention of President Bola Tinubu. Many of those perceived to have supported the anti-Obasa camp were denied return tickets. This was seen as political payback to restore discipline within the party.
Factional Warfare: Justice Forum vs Mandate Group
The long-standing supremacy battle between the two major caucuses in Lagos APC played a major role. Many members aligned with the Mandate Movement (linked to Obasa) became casualties, while candidates closer to the Justice Forum and other dominant blocs gained the upper hand.
Desire for Fresh Blood and Generational Shift
Party leaders, including President Tinubu and the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), reportedly pushed for new faces to inject fresh energy into the Assembly. Many long-serving lawmakers were viewed as disconnected from grassroots realities, especially after the Labour Party’s strong showing in Lagos in 2023.
Loss of Godfather/Elite Backing and Weak Grassroots Structure
Several incumbents relied heavily on powerful godfathers rather than building independent ward-level support. Once elite consensus moved against them, their re-election bids collapsed. Local government chairmen and stronger grassroots mobilizers displaced many sitting members.
Notable Casualties Desmond Elliot (Surulere Constituency I) — Crushed in a landslide (reportedly around 270 votes against over 11,000). Widely seen as punishment for his alleged role in the Obasa impeachment crisis.
Noheem Adams (Majority Leader)
Fatai Mojeed (Chief Whip)
Setonji David (Deputy Chief Whip)
Other affected lawmakers include Gbolahan Ogunleye, Lanre Afini, Stephen Ogundipe, Obafemi Saheed, and more.
Conclusion / Analysis
This primary result marks one of the largest turnovers in the Lagos State House of Assembly since 1999. It weakens old power blocs, opens up the race for the next Speakership, and shows that in Lagos APC politics, loyalty and alignment matter more than legislative experience or incumbency. As the party prepares for the 2027 general elections, the big question remains: Will these new faces deliver better representation, or is this just another cycle of elite musical chairs?
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